Repeating calendar months or months with same start day

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Repeating calendar months or months where the first day starts on the same day
Hi All,
I am looking at splitting my forecast from monthly down to weekly/ daily etc. I am in the process of doing some trend analysis to look at how I need to weight my weeks. The contact centre is open 5 days per week and closed bank UK bank holidays. In your experience is it better to look for trends in call delivery in repeating calendar months or in months with the same starting day or in months with the same number of working days.
Many Thanks
James

Helper

Call Centre Helper

Days per month
Ideally you just split the number of days per month into the number of days per week.

So if week 5 has 2 working days in Jan and 3 working days in Feb then put 2/5 of week 5 in Jan and 3/5 of Week 5 in Feb.

It's a bit fiddly but probably the most accurate way to measure it.

You may be able to do it in Excel

Column A is the date 1 Jan 2107, 2 Jan 2017, 3 Jan 2017 etc
So if A3 is 1 Jan 2107
B2 = MONTH(A3)
C3 = WEEKNUM(A3)

and so carry on down the page. This then maps week number to month

Days per month
Thanks for the response Jonty. So having mapped the call delivery to week number I then would check for correlation in that pattern year on year and use this to weight my forecasts and account for variances in my calls within the month?

Essentially my weighting of calls within a week and day is working as I have tested this against actual calls (IE I feed in the actually weekly calls and my splitter gives me the daily and interval calls pretty nicely)

However the area I was falling down on was splitting the month and getting a weekly forecast from it due to irregular repeating patterns in different months. (I think it is due to marketing drops but I am awaiting historical data to confirm)

This gives me another avenue to look at it through that I had not considered so thanks.

Helper

Call Centre Helper

Forecast Accuracy
As regards to Marketing Drops these can be isolated from the underlying patterns using a regression analysis.

Maggie Klenke talked about this on a webinar a few years ago.

https://www.callcentrehelper.com/free-webinar-improving-forecast-accuracy-29118.htm

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